From Aaron, Risk and Rigor
The following three chapters (click on titles for pdfs) present information and advice in the context of creating decision trees to analyze litigation risk and value. However, much of their content would be useful for anyone seeking to assess probabilities of an uncertain future event, whether or not these probabilities will be placed on a decision tree structure.
Chapter 9 - “Psychology’s Important Interlude”
This chapter discusses common psychological tendencies that distort the way people estimate probabilities (as well as damages), and offers some strategies to compensate. These strategies are discussed more fully in chapter 11, as they inform that chapter’s recommended best practices.
Chapter 10 - “Affirming and Working with Subjective Probabilities”
This chapter makes the argument for working with probabilities that are admittedly subjective, addressing both the value and the challenges involved.
Chapter 11 - “Best Practices for Probabilities and Prediction”
This chapter delves deep into some technical aspects of assessing probability, both using external data sources and addressing known psychological/cognitive tendencies that impact best practices in eliciting probability estimates from client lawyers.
Additional articles are referenced in Risk and Rigor's reference bibliography.